The latest industry data for cement sales in the country look positive for the first time in ages. And are also borne out by a conversation I had this week with a small industry player (blender/broker of bulk cement into bags).
That's right - volumes up by more than 10% in October on both the daily and the monthjly stat, after a solid September 12% monthly (more days).
So - what can this imply for PPC, which has recently reported muted results, after a torrid time with volumes negative or flat for two years as the tables show? But do you remember how vigorously the company traded just a few years ago - with interim price rises at will, and special dividends dripping out like honey from a summer honeycomb?
Well, here is my latest DCF of PPC - and on a price of R26, with moderate assumed growth of 8% and PBT margin of 24% I arrive at a valuation of R34... anybody have reason to differ either way?
And for context, here is a price chart of PPC (blue), with my current DCF valuation retrospectively discounted and plotted (red) to highlight the price vs. value game which shares tend to play.