Truworths is not broken — but it is not growing either. Group retail sales fell 4.3% to R6.5 billion in the first 17 weeks of the financial year, and the explanation is the same one every SA retailer is giving: "consumer spending remained under pressure". Truworths Africa sales dropped 2.7% to R4.1 billion, with cash sales down 8.6% — the high-cost-of-living tax on the middle class showing up in real time. The 0.3% sterling growth at Office UK is fine, but the rand translation turned it into a 6.9% decline, which is the currency doing what the currency does.
The interesting decision is the one management made consciously: lower levels of promotional activity. That cost them top-line growth — the 2.7% decline would certainly have been narrower with deeper discounts — but it kept gross profit margins intact. Truworths Africa maintained rand gross profit in line with the prior period, and Office UK increased sterling gross profit by 2%. In a market where many retailers are discounting themselves into misery, Truworths chose margin over market share. At R48.87, the stock trades on roughly 11x earnings with a decent yield. No alarm bells, no fireworks — a well-run retailer in a bad cycle doing the right things. NEUTRAL.
There are two stories in Sibanye's Q3 operating update, and they move in opposite directions. The SA side is quietly good: quarter-on-quarter improvements across both the SA PGM and gold operations, steady output at Century zinc, and group adjusted EBITDA up 9% year-on-year to R10.8 billion ($662 million) supported by higher commodity prices. Safety metrics improved across the board. The Group is on track to meet annual guidance everywhere except the US PGM operations, which were hit by industrial action during the quarter.
The US story is the one to watch. A new labour agreement is now finalised and team-based incentives have been introduced — management calls it "a significant milestone in the transition to a more productive and sustainable mechanised operating model". That is corporate language for 'the strike is over and we are changing how we work'. But the US operations remain the loss-making leg of the story, and the strike delays any recovery by at least a quarter. At R38.40, Sibanye trades at a discount to historical multiples that reflects exactly this uncertainty. The SA operations are on track, the US is healing, but the market needs to see the run-rate before it re-rates. NEUTRAL — watch the US recovery in Q4.
PPC is living up to the name of its turnaround plan. The 'Awaken the Giant' programme is delivering exactly what it promised: EPS of 30.0 to 34.5 cents per share for the six months to September, up 20% to 38% from the prior period's 25 cents. Headline earnings per share track the same range, which means the improvements are operational, not structural. The growth is driven by continued momentum in the turnaround plan, delivering "increasingly tangible benefits". For a cement company that has spent years restructuring, closing uneconomic kilns and retrenching, the inflection point is here.
The asterisk is the RK3 plant — the new integrated cement plant in the Western Cape. The US dollar exposure on its construction was fully hedged, but the rand strengthened and PPC took realised and unrealised forex losses on those contracts. Strip those out, and pro forma EPS is 35-40.5 cents, up 17-35%. The underlying business is stronger than the headline number. At R8.22, the stock trades on roughly 12x the guided run-rate, cheap for a cement business that has finally stopped bleeding and is starting to grow. The final results will tell the full story, but the direction is clear. BULLISH.
Optasia is quietly becoming one of the best growth stories on the JSE that nobody talks about. Revenue of approximately $270 million for the nine months to September, up 45% year-on-year, with $5.1 billion of value distributed through the platform — up 34%. The engine is Micro-Financing Solutions, which grew 67% to about $194 million and now accounts for 72% of group revenue. The combined take rate rose to 5.3% from 4.9%, meaning Optasia is not just growing volume, it is growing margin per transaction. Airtime Credit Solutions grew a modest 8% as the Nigerian restructuring under the multi-provider structure continues to stabilise.
The forward indicators are better than the rearview. Three new deployments went live since the H1 update: merchant loans in Uganda and two banking deployments with FirstRand covering both ACS and MFS. That is FirstRand — SA's biggest bank — choosing Optasia's platform. Full-year targets are unchanged, which means the guidance set at the start of the year is still standing on 9M performance. At R17.09 the stock trades on a multiple that still has room to expand if this growth trajectory holds. The H1 foreign exchange benefit has eased, so the Q4 comparison gets harder — but the base of the business is now $270m of revenue with a 72% mix skewed to the highest-growth product. BULLISH.
A property sale that actually closes. Octodec has completed the R397.5 million disposal of Killarney Mall — 100% of the shares and claims in its subsidiary — to AJPG Property 1, with the Competition Commission's approval in hand. The conditions precedent have all been fulfilled and ownership transferred on 2 November. The original announcement was in February, so this took nine months to close — standard for a JSE-listed property disposal with regulatory approvals — but closed is closed.
The proceeds are earmarked for paying down borrowings and executing on strategic priorities, which is corporate code for 'bringing that loan-to-value ratio down'. Octodec has been grinding through a balance sheet repair exercise for the past two years, and every asset sale at the right price strengthens the story. Killarney Mall is a decent asset, but one of many in a portfolio that needed trimming. At R18.51, the stock yields well and the debt trajectory is finally pointing in the right direction. The execution risk on this one is behind them, not ahead. BULLISH — another step in the repair, not the destination.
MTN Uganda is the subsidiary that keeps delivering in a year when many of MTN's other African units have faced currency pressure and regulatory headwinds. The Q3 results are another reminder that Uganda is one of the most stable and fastest-growing telecom markets on the continent — mobile penetration still below 50%, data adoption accelerating, and MTN holding dominant market share after years of infrastructure investment. The Ugandan shilling has been relatively stable versus the dollar, which is more than can be said for Nigeria or Ghana.
At R217.63, MTN Group trades on roughly 8x trailing earnings with a dividend yield that pays you to wait. The Nigerian uncertainty is the perennial discount, and MTN Ghana's tax overhang is another cloud. But Uganda just keeps printing — consistent service revenue growth, expanding data margins, and a regulatory environment that is predictable enough to plan around. The sum-of-the-parts discount on MTN Group has been a persistent feature of the stock, and Uganda is one of the parts that would command a much higher multiple on a standalone basis. BULLISH — the group is cheap, and Uganda is a big reason why.
After two months of hanging in cautionary limbo, Mahube shareholders get a number: R10.06 a share, all cash, from Kholosani Newco 8. That is a 67% premium to where Mahube traded at R6.02 on 21 October, and roughly 46% above the undisturbed price when the original cautionary landed in September. The stock closed at R8.61 on Thursday, which means the market is pricing in a roughly 17% gap to the offer — standard for a scheme of arrangement where the timetable (circular, general meeting, court sanction, implementation) runs into early 2027.
The consideration is at a 25% premium to Mahube's last published NAV of roughly R8.00, which is generous for an infrastructure investment holding company whose portfolio is a collection of unlisted renewable and infrastructure assets — good cash flows, no easy exit, and a discount to NAV that had persisted for years. The delisting is part of the deal, so minority holders who don't tender get cashed out anyway. Kholosani is a new vehicle (registered in 2025), so the identity of the ultimate backers matters and hasn't been fully disclosed. But a signed implementation agreement at this premium with the board's unanimous recommendation is as close to 'done' as a JSE deal gets at this stage. BULLISH — the exit price is known, and it's good.
Lesaka's Q1 is a tale of two businesses under one listed roof, and they are moving in opposite directions. The Consumer segment is the engine: net revenue up 24% to R668m, segment EBITDA up 40% to R105m. That is the Kazang, EasyPay and Touchsides stable — prepaid vouchers, point-of-sale terminals, township financial services — growing exactly the way a fintech serving the underbanked should grow. The Merchant segment is the problem: net revenue down 7% to R675m, segment EBITDA collapsing 51% to R77m. That is the legacy payment-processing business that's under margin pressure from competitors and structural shifts.
Group net revenue still grew 8% to R1.58bn, and the adjusted loss per share narrowed 8% to 81 cents. FY2027 guidance is reaffirmed. But Group Adjusted EBITDA fell 17% to R220m, and the path to profitability is now entirely dependent on Consumer continuing to grow fast enough to drag the Merchant millstone. At R68.50, Lesaka trades at roughly 10x trailing revenue — not cheap for a business where one half is growing and the other half isn't. The directional bets are the right ones (Consumer is the future), but the near-term math is messy. NEUTRAL — wait for Merchant stabilisation.
This is the end of the road for Efora Energy, and it reads exactly as you would expect for a company that ran out of options. The Gauteng High Court placed Efora under provisional winding-up on 2 November by consent — which means the company agreed to it. The liquidation application was brought by Seodi Coal (Pty) Ltd, and discussions about a potential transaction that might have saved the company have been terminated. The cautionary is withdrawn because there is nothing left to caution about. A rule nisi has been issued, returnable on 22 February 2027, for interested parties to show cause why the winding-up should not be made final.
At 2 cents, the stock is worth less than the paper the SENS is printed on. No provisional liquidator has been appointed yet, but one will be, and the normal outcome of a provisional winding-up order is a final one. Efora was once a modest energy company with ambitions in oil trading and downstream fuel. It became a cautionary tale about what happens when the cash runs out before the deal lands. There is no value left to debate, no thesis to hold. BEARISH — this is a winding-up, not a rescue.
Some gold miners produce ounces. AngloGold produces cash. The Q3 numbers are a masterclass in what happens when a global gold miner stops investing in the wrong things and lets the gold price do the work. EBITDA of $1.57 billion, up 12%. Free cash flow of $722 million, taking year-to-date free cash flow to $2.6 billion. Net cash expanded to $1.26 billion — that is not a balance sheet, that is a war chest. And the board declared a $361 million interim dividend, or 71 cents per share, on top of the $687 million returned through buybacks year-to-date. The operating catalysts management flagged — Iduapriem dewatered, Sukari stripping unlocking high-grade ore, Obuasi stopes returning — are all lined up for Q4.
The only shadow is the fatality at Sukari in August, an underground rockfall that killed one of their people. Operations resumed after investigation, and the learnings are being implemented across the group. In a quarter of record cash generation, that is the number that matters most. The stock has run hard — R1,423 at last trade — and the forward multiple reflects the gold price staying where it is. But with $1.26 billion net cash and a growth pipeline that is self-funding, AngloGold is one of the few SA-incumbent gold stocks that deserves a premium. BULLISH.