TFG's half-year is a story of two entirely different businesses sharing one balance sheet. TFG Africa — the core SA retail operation — grew operating profit 2.7% in a consumer environment that has most retailers reaching for the panic button. Market share up 20bps, online via Bash up 53.3%, 120 underperforming stores closed with another 60-80 to go. The strategic direction is clear: simplify, digitise, get smaller in space but bigger in share of wallet. The dividend cut from 130c to 121c is prudent, not panicked. Cash generation improved to R3.7bn from R3.1bn, and net debt fell R0.9bn.
The problem is TFG London and the rest of the international portfolio. The 0.1% group revenue growth and 6.5% operating profit decline tell you everything — Africa is pulling the cart, and the international horses are lying down. At R55 and 10x annualised earnings, the market is pricing TFG as if Africa doesn't matter. That is a mistake. The Bash platform alone, doing 10.9% of Africa sales and growing at 53%, is worth more than the market gives TFG credit for. The stores closure programme frees up capital. If international stabilises — and at these levels it can hardly get worse — the rerating could be sharp.
Shoprite keeps doing what Shoprite does: taking share, opening stores, and keeping inflation so low that competitors must be wondering if the group operates on a different planet. Group sales up 6.4% for the four months to October. Supermarkets RSA — the core food business — up 7.1%. Internal selling price inflation of just 0.7%, meaning the growth is volume and mix, not pricing. The Shoprite brand itself is in deflation. In an environment where consumers are feeling every cent, that is a superpower.
Sixty60 continues to drive the premium Checkers banner, and the digital commerce platform is pulling higher-margin customers into the ecosystem. A net 61 new stores in Supermarkets RSA alone — 71 group-wide — is aggressive expansion for a business already dominant. The operating leverage here is significant: fixed costs spread over a growing base, with inflation barely moving. At R336.66, Shoprite trades at roughly 22x trailing earnings, which is not cheap. But when the best retailer in the country keeps printing 7%+ organic growth with virtually no price inflation, the premium is earned. This is a compounder. Hold on.
Sappi just reported one of the worst full-year results in its modern history, and no amount of upbeat language about woodfibre and sustainability can paper over it. Revenue fell 3% to $5.3bn. Adjusted EBITDA collapsed 41% to $294m — that is not a cyclical blip, it is a profit warning dressed up as a results announcement. Headline earnings per share came in at minus 69 US cents. The business lost money in every quarter of the year. Net debt rose to $2.05bn, and at these earnings levels that debt burden starts to look genuinely uncomfortable.
The pulp market oversupply, weak graphic paper demand and a strong dollar punishing US-denominated earnings from SA manufacturing — all the headwinds hit at once. The fourth quarter showed a marginal Q-on-Q improvement (adjusted EBITDA $92m vs Q3), but the trajectory is nowhere near enough to make a dent in the annual loss. At R11.25 and a market cap of roughly R13bn, Sappi trades at about 44x the adjusted EBITDA it generated this year. That is not value. That is hope pricing. The board committee changes announced alongside these numbers feel like rearranging deckchairs. This is a stock to avoid until the cycle turns decisively.
Purple Group's trading statement is a reminder that EasyEquities remains the best distribution platform in South African financial services for the simple reason that it has the most users and the lowest costs. Headline earnings per share of 5.26-5.69 cents, up 22-32% from 4.30 cents, is not eye-watering growth but it is steady, compounding progress in a market where most fintech stories have been about burning cash rather than printing it. The audited results come on 11 November, and there is no reason to expect bad news from a business that has been steadily converting its USSD-to-app user base into revenue-generating accounts.
The key question for Purple Group is whether it can monetise its millions of registered users better. At 5.5 cents HEPS and a share price of R1.84, the stock trades at about 33x earnings — which is expensive for a brokerage in a low-volume market. But EasyEquities is not just a brokerage; it is a rails business. New products (offshore investing, satrix, derivatives) layer on incremental margin with little marginal cost. The 22-32% HEPS growth is a solid beat, but the market will want to see the trajectory accelerate before rerating the stock. One to watch, one to own on pullbacks.
MTN Rwanda filing its Q3 results on the Rwanda Stock Exchange is a procedural disclosure, not a market-moving event. MTN Group owns a controlling stake in MTN Rwanda, and the subsidiary's results are one data point in a much larger continental mosaic. The fact that MTN took the time to issue a SENS about it suggests the numbers are worth noting — likely in line or better — but without the actual figures in the announcement, there is nothing to analyse.
What matters for MTN Group is the bigger picture: Nigeria stabilising, Ghana delivering, and the rest of Africa showing momentum. The group restructured its fintech business, the towers separation continues, and the balance sheet is in better shape than it has been in years. At R213 and roughly 7x forward earnings, MTN is still the cheapest large-cap telecoms stock on the JSE by a distance. The Rwanda update is a footnote, not the story. Hold.
Mahube Infrastructure is being taken out at R10.06 per share by a consortium that includes some of its own investee companies' co-shareholders, and the offer makes uncomfortable sense. Uncomfortable because the board chair Gontse Moseneke is also a beneficiary of one of the buying trusts (Matlotleng), creating a conflict that demands scrutiny. But sensible because Mahube — a renewable energy SPAC that listed in 2015 — has been trading at a persistent and painful discount to its Net Asset Value. The offer of R10.06 is slightly below the stated NAV but represents a 46% premium to the undisturbed price of R6.02. Shareholders who have held this stock since listing have endured years of illiquidity and a double-digit discount. This offer gives them a clean cash exit.
The buying consortium — Kholosani 9, Matlotleng and Damazuzu — already co-owns several of Mahube's underlying renewable energy assets (Jasper, Lesedi, Letsatsi solar farms). They know exactly what they are buying. The independent board has been constituted, the Takeover Regulation Panel is involved, and a scheme circular is coming. The stock jumped from R6.02 to R8.81 on the announcement, and with the offer at R10.06 there is still 14% upside. The risk is that the scheme fails or a competing offer emerges below R10.06. But a consortium that already holds the assets alongside Mahube is unlikely to walk away. The rational trade: tender into the scheme and take the 14%.