Read past the headline numbers. Refined PGM production fell 41% to 576.9koz and sales dropped 27% to 683.3koz, but management's explanation holds up: planned processing maintenance and annual stock counts were deliberately re-phased from H1 into Q3, and year-to-date refined output is only 2% below last year. Total M&C production of 804.3koz was 6% lower, hit by company-wide safety stoppages after the tragic fatality at Amandelbult in July — a human cost that deserves more attention than any ounce count. Mototolo outperformed, and two new purchase-of-concentrate agreements with Tharisa add margin to the processing platform.
The real story hiding in the table is chrome: dry chrome production up 41% year-to-date to 825kt and sales up 42%. That's a serious diversification kicker for a platinum house. Guidance for 2026 is unchanged at 3.0-3.4Moz M&C, though cash costs are guided to the top of the R19,000-R20,000/oz range with AISC still around US$1,050/3E oz. The share slipped 2.7% to R1,133 on the day — the market skimmed the -41% and missed the footnotes. On 8.2x earnings with a 37.8% ROE this is a well-run miner having a noisy quarter, not a thesis break. NEUTRAL — watch chrome and the cost line.
Finbond is doing the right things and getting the wrong results. Loans and advances grew 14.5% to R762.7m, interest expense stayed flat despite the bigger book, cash used in operations improved 51.4% to R34.7m, and distributions from joint ventures rose 9% to R131.2m. The company even collects 128.3c back in cash for every rand it lends out. But basic earnings per share fell from 11c to 1.7c, and headline earnings swung from +1.1c to a loss of 5.9c per share — driven by higher impairments across its South African lending units.
The problem is the cycle, not the plan. Management is upfront about it: a difficult credit environment, rising credit loss ratios at the major banks, and 140 new branches opened in three years that attract higher-risk new customers. Supreme Finance and King Loan Finance have turned ultra-conservative on lending, which slows the growth engine. Total comprehensive income of R30.3m (up 252%) flatters — it includes non-cash remeasurements. At R0.57, down 45% in a year and trading on 0.55x book, the market has already repriced the risk. But for a lender whose headline earnings just went negative while its core customers are under financial strain, cheap isn't the same as good. BEARISH until impairments stop rising.